Chapter 5 – F_ck Y_u T_m Br_dy

My biggest mistake in FF this year …

… was not drafting Tom Brady.  Yeah LT is good, but my prediction is that whoever has Tom Brady on their team will win each respective league unless they totally suck.  Let’s look at the data.  Who owns Tom Brady?

1. EatCrap: Dan, 1st Place
2. JV: Emily, 1st Place
3. Consolation: Michelle, 1st Place
4. Gay Fockers: Steve, 1st Place

So you can see that the only skill needed to win in fantasy football is to NOT be stupid enough to NOT draft Tom Brady.  Now I would like to read off the list of names of all the people (idiots) who had the chance to draft Tom Brady and passed on him, in no particular order:

1. Richelle
2. Sam
3. Jeff
4. Michelle
5. Steve
6. Joe
7. Emily
8. Sarra
9. Greg
10. Dan

So who was stupid enough to not draft Tom Brady?  Everybody!!!  In fact, in the JV league, not only did everybody pass on Brady, but everybody did it at least 3 times each.  Brady was not drafted until the middle of the 4th round.  Boy was Emily smart… after passing on Brady for 3 and a half rounds, Emily took a brave gamble that she would need a quarterback, and selected the best one on the board at the time.  Genius!

What makes Brady even more of a great fantasy player is the fact that Bill Belicheck is a dick.  Who else in the NFL has audacity to go up 42-0 in the first half against a pitiful Miami team, and then come out throwing in the 2nd half?  The answer is nobody.  Frankly, one of the reasons Peyton Manning sucks so bad this year is that his coach is not a dick.

One last word about Dan… One may say that Dan passing on Tom Brady in the first round of the draft didn’t hurt him because he eventually got Tom Brady in the 2nd round.  Fine… I will concede this.  But I will also call attention to the fact that he also passed on Brady in the 1st round of the Gay league, and Steve got him.  So let it be known that Dan passed up Tom Brady multiple times, and he did not get him in the Gay league, where he currently occupies last place.

Let’s review last week’s predictions and results…

Eat Crap – No, Seriously … I want you to go and eat it.

1. Jeff over Sam (correct … this is a given [and it was])
2. Joe over Richelle (correct)
3. Dan over Michelle (correct)
4. Steve over Emily (incorrect)

Junior Varsity

1. Jeff over Sarra (incorrect … this is also a given [(correct) about it being incorrect])
2. Michelle over Greg (correct)
3. Joe over Sam (correct)
4. Emily Over Steve (correct)

Consolation – Are any of us really consoled by this?

1. Steve over Jeff (correct)
2. Michelle over Joe (correct)
3. Sarra over Emily (correct)

Four Gay People – Ambiguously

1. Dan will stay in last place (correct)

Total Correct to Incorrect Ratio: 11:1, 92% correct.  When you compare this to the percent of the time that all players in the JV league drafted correctly in the first 3 rounds, which is 0%, I didn’t do that poorly with last week’s predictions.

This Week’s Predictions (92% will be hard to beat, but 0% will not)

Eat Crap – Solidifying 7th Seed

1. Joe over Jeff
2. Richelle over Michelle
3. Dan over Emily
4. Sam over Steve (Believe it or not)

Junior Varsity – Fighting for 6th Seed (but not very hard)

1. Michelle over Jeff
2. Joe over Greg
3. Steve over Sam
4. Emily Over Sarra

Consolation – Girls are Better than Boys

1. Emily over Jeff
2. Michelle over Steve
3. Sarra over Joe

Four Gay People – Steve is Vulnerable

1. Steve will NOT get the high score for the week
2. Dan will stay in last place, even if he puts defenders in

Summary

If Tom Brady gets injured, all you first place leaders are screwed!

Chapter 4 – Incorrect!

So you were … ? 

After giving Dan a draft grade of F+, albeit retaliatory, for the piece of crap grade he gave me… I now find myself in the position of being incorrect.  Although the correct grade was in fact F+, I was incorrect in thinking that my team was going to beat his team.  I was also incorrect in thinking Joe’s team was going to be worth a crap.  I was also incorrect in thinking Emily would have another bad year again… and she is actually doing pretty good this year.

I thought Sam would be bad at fantasy football… I was incorrect … he is actually very, very bad.  And the good news is that I play him this week, which may be just enough to get me a win, even though I have open roster spots.

Let’s recap last week’s predictions vs. results

Eat Crap – Upset Weekend

1. Richelle over Jeff (correct)
2. Dan over Joe (correct)
3. Steve over Michelle (incorrect)
4. Emily over Sam (correct)

Junior Varsity – The Rich Get Richer

1. Greg over Jeff (correct)
2. Michelle obliterating Sam (correct: 185 to 61)
3. Emily over Joe (correct)
4. Steve over Sarra, but barely (incorrect)

Consolation – The Beat Your Husband’s Club

1. Michelle over Jeff (correct)
2. Sarra over Steve (incorrect)
3. Emily over Joe (incorrect)

Four Gay People – Who’s Your Daddy?

1. Joe will not have a good week (correct: lowest score of the 4)
2. Everybody else will do OK (correct)
3. Dan will stay in last place (correct)

Summary of Results

I was only incorrect in 4 out of 14 predictions.  This is a 28% incorrect rate.  Compare this to my initial draft in the customer service league.  Of my original draft picks, I have kept only 3 out of 9.  This implies a 67% incorrect rate. 

Conclusion:  My original draft grade must be revised to F-.  Only 33% of my draft picks were correct.

This week’s predictions

Eat Crap – No, Seriously … I want you to go and eat it.

1. Jeff over Sam (correct … this is a given)
2. Joe over Richelle
3. Dan over Michelle
4. Steve over Emily

Junior Varsity

1. Jeff over Sarra (incorrect … this is also a given)
2. Michelle over Greg
3. Joe over Sam
4. Emily Over Steve (Narrowly)

Consolation – Are any of us really consoled by this?

1. Steve over Jeff
2. Michelle over Joe
3. Sarra over Emily

Four Gay People – Ambiguously

1. Dan will stay in last place (correct)

Good luck proving my predictions wrong

Chapter 3 – Kings for a Day

Overview

Well … let’s review who the 4 kings (leaders) are in the different leagues

1. Dan (EatCrap)
2. Emily (JV)
3. Michelle (Consolation)
4. Steve (GayFellows)

Now let’s review who the queens (2nd place) are:

1. Michelle (EatCrap)
2. Michelle (JV)
3. Sarra (Consolation)
4. Jeff (GayFellows)

What is new here? …. Nothing!  Well… Except that steve is back on top of the gay people.

Next

Rather than focus on who sucks at Fantasy Football, I would like to talk which players suck.  I have taken a survey and below are the results of who sucks the most relative to what they were supposed to be…

1. Larry Johnson
2. Steven Jackson
3. Drew Brees
4. Marques Colston
5. Mark Bulger
6. Reggie Bush
7. Javon Walker
8. Larry Fitzgerald
9. Dan Klecko
10. Torry Holt

If you drafted these players you are probably losing because they have done nothing.

Predictions

Eat Crap – Upset Weekend

1. Richelle over Jeff
2. Dan over Joe
3. Steve over Michelle
4. Emily over Sam

Junior Varsity – The Rich Get Richer

1. Greg over Jeff
2. Michelle obliterating Sam
3. Emily over Joe
4. Steve over Sarra, but barely

Consolation – The Beat Your Husband’s Club

1. Michelle over Jeff
2. Sarra over Steve
3. Emily over Joe

Four Gay People – Who’s Your Daddy?

1. Joe will not have a good week
2. Everybody else will do OK
3. Dan will stay in last place

Summary

1. Nothing really new this week
2. Several players suck
3. Joe will not win any games (neither will Jeff for that matter)

For Immediate Release

BTW World Champion Enterprises Makes Drastic Cuts to Rosters

Houston, TX – October 8, 2007 – BTW World Champion Enterprises, a leading fantasy football holding company, today announced major overhauls to their various fantasy football rosters.  The move culminates a growing displeasure of both owner and fans, as all of the teams under management have failed to meet milestones of mediocrity over the first few weeks of the season.  Today’s cuts include several previously marquis players, including:

·         Larry Johnson, RB, KC (cut 3 times on 3 different teams)

·         Marques Colston, WR, NO

·         Clinton Portis, RB, WAS

·         Jeff Reed, K, PIT

·         Calvin Johnson, WR, DET

·         Antwaan Randle El, WR, WAS

·         Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC

·         Roy Williams, WR, DET

·         Mike Vrabel, LB, NE

In an explanation of the roster moves, Jeff Robinson, President and Director of Personnel Operations, explained, “We regret that we had to cut ties with so many players in such an abrupt manner.  Unfortunately, we needed to make room for other injured or mediocre players who frankly have a higher probability of success than some of the healthy players we let go today.”

In conjunction with today’s cuts, Robinson signed several other players out of free agency and local hospitals, including the following:

·         Will Witherspoon, LB, STL

·         Brett Favre, QB, GB

·         Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC

·         Larry Fitzgerald, WR, AZ

·         Donovan McNabb, QB, PHI

·         Donald Driver, WR, GB

·         Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC

·         Joey Galloway, WR, TB

·         Marvin Harrison, WR, IND

·         Andre Johnson, WR, HOU

“While all of the cuts were expected, I think today’s personnel moves mark a bold new direction for each of our teams.  We have also elected not to fill certain superfluous positions like kicker or defender until we get our teams on track, and I think we are even open to starting injured players or players on bye.  We are committed to change, and we are ready to make a statement to those players that were let go today.  ‘We are not going to let you play for us anymore.’”  Jeff Robinson further commented, “This is clearly not the end to cuts we plan to make this year.  Let’s see if the new players are willing to step up and help our teams get to the next level—Mediocre.”

Both Donovan McNabb and Larry Fitzgerald were cut earlier this year due to pathetic performance, but for some unknown reason were re-signed in the wake of today’s blockbuster cuts.

 About BTW World Champion Enterprises

BTW World Champion Enterprises manages teams in four different fantasy football leagues:  1800EatCrap, Junior Varsity, Consolation, and Four Gay People.  BTW became world champion after winning last year’s super bowl in the TexasTussle, a league they were banned from this year due to preemptive disciplinary action by the new commissioner.

To learn more about BTW World Champion Enterprises, please visit their blog at http://jefflogix.wordpress.com

Breaking News: Player Status Report – Week 5

Below is a player status report for Week 5

The following players are pathetic and will be CUT due to continued and flagrant unacceptable performance:

1. Larry Johnson (RB), KC
2. Marques Colston (WR), NO

The following players are receiving a FINAL WARNING, and may be cut anyway at a later date.  These players are highly likely to be cut very soon:

1. Dwayne Bowe (WR), KC
2. Keith Brooking (LB), ATL
3. Clinton Portis (RB), WAS

The following players are SAFE, and will continue to be on my roster(s) through week 5 due to acceptable performance

1. Plaxico Burress (WR), NYG
2. New England Defense
3. Will Witherspoon (LB), STL
4. Donnie Edwards (KC), KC
5. Antonio Pierce (LB), NYG
6. Brandon Jacobs (RB), NYG
7. Steve Smith (WR), CAR

There may be other players who get to stay on my roster, but it won’t be because they earned it this week.  And frankly, all other players are subject to being cut at any time.

I believe we have time for just a few questions…

Chapter 2 – Don’t Fear the Reaper (Michelle)

First, I present to you… my new Avatar.  I think it sends the subtle and subliminal message about how I should be perceived by the outside world.

Click Here to for a video from my Sponsor

Next:  General Comments

So, in surveying the leaders and losers of the different leagues, there are 2 key observations:

1. Michelle (aka the Reaper) is in the top 2 places in EVERY league she is competing in.
2. Nobody else is.

What does this mean?  Does it mean that Michelle is someone to be feared?  Does this mean that she is a force to be reckoned with or even acknowledged?  No.  Basically it means that the dice was rolled 4 times and her number came up most often.

Fantasy Football is a Game of Chance

I assert that Fantasy Football is a game of chance.  Here is my evidence:

Exhibit 1:  I recorded everybody’s place position in each league as a percentile of the overall league this is shown in the exhibit below.  Notice that Michelle is on top and Richelle is on the bottom.  Everyone else is in the middle, more or less.  In fact, one could argue that the data is fairly normally (i.e. randomly) distributed.

In fact, I ran the same analysis replacing actual results with random numbers and the results are shown below.

The random result showed something rather interesting, all of which I would like to point out:

1. The shape of the random graph is eerily similar to the shape of the of the actual graph, indicating that the actual graph is as good as random.
2. More importantly, the random graph shows Michelle in last place … HA!

So to all of you, I say: Don’t pay any attention to the actual places or percentiles because (A) they are all as good as random, and (B) in a random (aka normally distributed) world, Michelle is in last place.

Let’s Recap Week 4 Results

While the specifics of my predictions were not necessarily correct, directionally they were EXACTLY correct.  Let me recap.

1. Dan maintained dominance in the EatCrap league
2. Steve went to 0-4 in the JV league
3. Lance Briggs did not play

And that is pretty much it.  Everything else I said was pretty much wrong.  But there were some big achievements:

1. I won my first game in the EatCrap league
2. Steve went to 0-4 in the JV league

But that is all in the past.  Let’s look forward.

1800EatCrap – Losing to Dan is Boring

Yeah, I play Dan this week and will probably lose.  That said, he still has J. Addai who is out this week.  He also added B. Urlacher who has an injured back.  Me losing this week to him will be somewhere between boring and humiliating.  Next.

The most exciting match up this week is (NOT) Steve vs. Joe, in the battle for 3rd place.  Joe is going in without a defender, and Steve has yet to make his move.  I’m going out on a limb and picking Steve to win here.  Why?  Because I am counting on him to come up with a better strategy than Joe, who has C. Palmer on a bye.

Conversely, I am picking Emily vs. Michelle, even though she is using the same patented strategy as Joe and in violation of U.S. patent law.  M. simply has too many people on bye, and I don’t know what she is going to do.

Richelle would have to be a total idiot to lose to Sam, who is now projecting a whopping 54 point outing.  So she essentially has a bye this week.

Playing without a bench is very interesting, but it is certainly not your traditional fantasy football.  It is more like Chess.  I have not yet revealed my strategy.

Junior Varsity – Emily’s New Empire

Emily takes a commanding lead, albeit tied for first place.  This should be a new and exciting experience for her after spending all of last year in the cellar.  This should also be a minimal vindication after drafting D. Brees and R. Bush as her first 2 picks in the eat crap league.  This week she faces her nemisis, Michelle, in a winner take all showdown.  And I regret that I cannot pick a winner of this game because it is so close.  But I hope somehow they both lose.

I face Sam in what should be a bye for me, enough said.

Joe will be featured as Stephen’s punching bag this week in the less important of their two match ups.  Again I am voting for Steve, but it will probably end up being close.

Greg faces down Sarra, and as much as I like Greg’s FF prowess, I don’t know if his subs are going to be enough to beat Sarra.

The Consolation League – Sarra’s Winning?

Yes.  Sarra is winning, but she also faces her nemesis, Michelle, in what will be a hotly contested match — too close to call.  But I am officially voting for Michelle.

I face Joe, and even though I am predicted to win big, I am predicting I will somehow find a way to lose.  Don’t ask.

Emily faces Stephen and a win for her would be a huge upset, so I am not going to predict it.

Four Gay People – 3 Men in a Tub

This league is still pretty even, except for Dan who extended our lead over him last week.  I think it is Joe’s turn to win the lead again this week, but let’s see what happens.

Closing Remarks

In the name-a-jeeziss-kryce…amen

This Week’s Run Down – Silence of the Dans

OK.  Let’s be honest.  Fantasy Football is not what you might call a “strong point” for me… although I do boast one of the only legitimate championships ever won by a Robinson-related male contender.  But that’s beside the point.  Let’s review highlights of the different leagues in which I am competing.

Customer Service League: 1800EatCrap – Dan’s Demise

With Dan firmly in contention AND a commanding lead of 10 points over his next closest competitor, he is clearly setting himself up for a disastrous unraveling, which will evoke his ultimate demise.  Why?  Because he is still playing Lance Briggs, who is “questionable” for today.  Other than that one thing, I would expect him to continue to dominate this league.  Dan has the top QB, RB, WR, etc.  Everybody is competing for 2nd place.  I have thought a lot about it, and I have personally decided to throw in the towell.  I prayed about it, and God wants Dan to win.

Sure… Michelle is “officially” tied for first place there, but she really has no hope for maintaining first place, or any other place for that matter.  Why?  Because she has the Chicago defense, and Lance Briggs is on the Chicago defense (see my comments above about Lance Briggs).

So with Michelle and Dan out of the way, who will compete for the next spot?  The answer?  Joe.  Why?  Because he has the Green Bay defense, and they are playing Minnesota, and Minnesota sucks!  Some of you may be wondering why Joe was picked ahead of Stephen who actually has a higher point total.  The answer?  Because Stephen has Lawrence Maroney, who is “questionable” this week.  This is a disastrous decision!  That is why I pick Joe next.

What about the bottom 4?  Well my next pick is Emily… Why?  Because she has John Kitna, who is playing Chicago defense… yes, the exact defense that will possibly not have Lance Briggs.  And let’s not forget about her San Diego DEF who plays KC who sucks.  Next?  Well my pick is Sam who currently occupies last place in every way possible.  Why?  Because his players are guaranteed to have a lucky game this week.  There is no other reason.  Other than luck, there is no way he will win.

My prediction for 7th place is Richelle; however, if Lance Briggs plays, I am predicting Dan to beat her.  Falling to dead last place will be me.  Why?  Because of only one small thing… my players suck and are injured.

So here are the predicted winners this week… Dan, Steve, and Joe

Losers?  Jeff, Richelle, and Emily

Too close to call?  Sam vs. Michelle.

Junior Varsity League – Emily and Michelle Stay on Top

OK, so Emily and Michelle are … let’s just say “Lucky.”  That said, we must face the inevitable and undeniable FACT that there is absolutely no way either of them can lose this week… UNLESS … unless LT fails to get 20 points.  If LT fails to get 20, then only Emily will win.  Either way, Emily has her best match-up of the season today with Tom Brady facing the swiss cheese otherwise known as the Cincinnatti defense.  So she will clearly stay in first place.

Now what about the rest?   Joe is still struggling at QB, but he plays Sarra this week, so he has a chance… and that chance is 100% (of beating Sarra).  And what about Greg?  He is silently stacking up the highest point total, but he somehow suffered a loss while still scoring 108 points.  Why is Greg behind Joe, who actually has one less win?  Because of bad luck.  Greg’s acheles heel this week?… B. Rudd–who is only projected to get 1.3 points .  Plus he is still playing Larry Johnson.  Now that is just bad luck.

Now the bottom 4, from best to worst:  OK, you know what? …. it doesn’t even matter, we are all 4 going to lose.  Those are the predictions.  We simply suck!  So if your name is Jeff, Sarra, Steve, or Sam, your chances of winning this week are 0%.  Why?  Because you are all playing against people who are going to win today.  It is nothing personal.

 The Consolation League – Sarra’s 15 Minutes of Fame

Yeah… Sarra is in first place, but let’s be honest.  She is going to lose to me this week.  Why?  Because Anquan Boldin is playing Pittsburg DEF, and on top of that he is doubtful.  Sorry Sarra, you have no chance.

In the middle we have a 4-way tie for second, but the best of the league is clearly… ME.  Why?  Because it’s MY BLOG.  OK, fine. I am clearly wrong.  But in reality this is a pretty evenly matched league … so far, so anything could happen this week.  Other than Steve losing, I really have no predictions in this league.  After all, in week one, Steve got 119 points and still lost.  Now that is bad luck.

Predictions:  Steve will lose.

Four Gay People – Dan’s Offsetting Penalty

Since this league was designated as a points-only league limited to 4 players by Dan, it is only fitting that he is almost 100 points behind the next higher player after only 2 games.  Sure, he is doing well in the first league, but the mandatory averaging of scores across leagues will continue to be his glass ceiling.  Truly, he embodies the phrase: “If you’re not first, your last!”

Steve and Joe are tied with identical scores at the top, but they are only 4 points ahead of me (Jeff), so it is anybody’s league.

Everybody in this league (even including Dan) has a relatively good roster and can field a winning team on any given sunday; however, Dan is still starting H. Ward (out) this week.  If he doesn’t fix this, he will definitely have another bad week.

Overall Reflections

Overall, fantasy football has been fun and will continue to be fun.  Since I have not found joy in winning this year, I want to thank Joe for giving me the idea to create my own FF Blog, so I can find fun in losing… and watching others lose… and making fun of them.

Good luck this week!